How’s this for a terrifying throwback – back in 2018 when South last flirted with relegation I put my Microsoft Excel skills to use and created a Monte Carlo Simulator. What is a Monte Carlo Simulator? It’s basically a results simulator that lets me input the results for the rest of the season and see how the final ladder would look like.

Well, with six rounds left in the season, I’ve done it again… it doesn’t predict the future, but can it help us get an idea of where South may end up?

The approach

Each time I ran the simulator I put in a set of assumption and simulated 50 final table outputs. This allowed me to understand the range of potential South Melbourne finishing positions.

Scenario 1: Purely Random

In scenario 1 I randomised all the results for the rest of the year. Teams could score between 0 and 5 goals in each game. I simulated 50 final tables to see the range of outcomes.

By using the purely random assumption, this gives us an idea of the total range of positions South could end up.

As you can see below in most cases South finished between 9th and 11th. It suggests that finals football is pretty much out of the question, and although relegation occurs less often, it is still possible for South to get relegated.

Scenario 2: Higher on the ladder scores more goals

In scenario 2, I made teams currently higher of the ladder better. In really simple terms, each team was expected one goals for each 10 points they currently have on the table, but I added a variance of +/-1 goals per game to account for some randomness. This meant Knights (13 points) could score between 0.3 and 2.3 goals per game but Heidelberg (48 points) could score between 3.8 and 5.8 goals per game.

By using the ladder position assumption, this gives us an idea of the more likely range of positions South could end up, but also reveals the difficulty of the run home.

As you can see below in most cases South finished between 9th and 11th. Finals is off the cards but if teams perform in line with their current league position it is unlikely we will get relegated.

Digging a little deeper at the average points in this scenario shows (unsurprisingly) that South has the toughest run home. Based on ladder position we are only expected to pick up 1 point (a draw against Altona).

The best case scenario

There is one scenario so insane that South finishes 3rd. It would require us to win every remaining game, Thunder to lose every game, Oakleigh to pick up just three points from the last six rounds and Port and Knights to pull off some insane upsets.

The worst case scenario

Unfortunately the worst case scenario for South is far more likely. We could still finish last on the table should the following occur: We pick up no points, Knights, Victory and Port manage three wins in the last six games.

Overall

The wins against Preston and Hume have been huge. In addition to those, Melbourne Knight’s win against Victory has means that South appears to have a buffer from relegation. This however is still dependent on the bottom teams continuing to struggle which as we have seen is not an assumption we can rely upon – Oakleigh for example has been upset by St Albans and Victory!

However, our model also assumes that South Melbourne only picks up one point in the next few week. When you consider the recent results against Preston and Hume it is reasonable to think we can actually pick up more points (especially against Altona, Gully and Dandenong City).

Out final ladder position is in our hands. Based on the scenarios, 2 wins should be enough to get us across the line.

See the expected ladder positions (based on current position) below.