We have simulated the remaining NPL Victoria season 50 times based on current ladder position and with some small variance in each of the games to understand the potential range of finishing positions for the teams. The results won’t shock you!

Here is the current table:

Here is the expected final table:

Here is the range of outcomes generated (current ladder positions in black boxes)

What can we gather from all of this? A few things:

• Avondale and Heidelberg will battle it out for the Premiership
• Knights are expected to finish bottom and the bottom three generally will find it hard to get out of relegation spots.
• Preston and Dandenong City look like they will battle it out for the last finals spot
• South have the toughest remaining draw and are the only team expected to fall from their current ladder position.

None of this is too revolutionary to be honest but it shows that it would take a huge turnaround in form from any of the teams to really shake this up. The difficulty of South’s final games is also evident, but it also provides the opportunity for outperformance.