Following on from our earlier simulation, we’ve updated our data to factor in the recent round of League football as well as the Knight’s catch up game, we then ran two test cases.

The first, where South win every game for the season & all other results are random. We ran this case 50 times and we learnt that even then South can still miss out on finals. Noting the utter lunacy of South winning every game, I think it’s safe to assume finals are ruled out.

The second, where South lose every game for the season & all other results are random. We ran this case 50 times and we learnt that in only a few cases South gets relegated. Being a stress head I still won’t be comfortable until we are mathematically safe, however it does go to show what an absolute shit show the next few weeks would need to be for us to get relegated. We would need two of Altona, Knights, Port or Victory to somehow catch us on the table. A win against Altona should all but secure safety, a loss… and things could change quickly yet again.