There’s been a lot of chatter this week. Overlapping headlines have once again awaked the unsleeping giant of Australian Football discussions. Of course I am referring to ‘uninformed takes on promotion and relegation’!

Most of this hadn’t really bothered me, that was until I saw a ridiculous article on ABC News (of all places), which implied South and Preston were shots to replace Western United in the A-League. Dozens of comments followed on reddit and twitter, none of which being particularly insightful, except to show a refreshing change in tone. Notably it appears that r/aleague fans seem more open to NPL teams joining the A-League now. The tide is turning… for now.

Here’s the thing though, except for fostering goodwill and providing useful promotion for the Australian Championship, the reaction this week has been misplaced. Firstly, Western United aren’t even dead yet, the club has launched an (unlikely) appeal and we won’t know the final outcome until next week. On that though, let’s explore this whole Western United fiasco for a second…

On Western United

Many will feel vindicated at the club’s demise, but I for one am not celebrating the fall of a professional football club in Australia. Western’s inclusion/expulsion has no real bearing on the structural issues of Australian football that hold South back. So, in a vain attempt to try and be consistent with my messaging, I am, I guess, sad about the Western United situation.

The issues as I see them are such, A-League club business models are unsustainable and deficiencies in the broader Australian football pyramid are holding the game back. Western United’s demise is indicative of the former issue, and the A-League inability to replace them is indicative of the latter.

If Western could survive on 3k crowds in the middle of nowhere, than that’s great, keep that going! We need to shift our views in this game, including changing this strange obsession with attendances. It’s more important rather, for the A-League to try and increase the number of games and teams it has in a financially sustainable way. Western’s demise will likely increase average attendances of the A-League next year, but the overall impact of its loss is bad for the football ecosystem.

If we want big crowds than let’s revert to the original one team one city A-League model, have a short season and play friendlies against travelling overseas teams. Australian football is starting to realise that it needs more than this though, there is football cultural development component we are slowly waking up too, I guess this is one of the reasons why r/aleague fans are starting to be more welcoming of NPL clubs. No one is saying NPL clubs are absolutely better than A-League clubs, or vice versa, but people are starting to realise that they can learn from each other.

Is part of me happy that Western United will likely be cut ? Sure, in a football rivalry sense. Their fans have been terrible to South at various points (the infamous no license banner) and the club’s existence represented the worst intersection of administrative incompetence, real estate speculation and franchise football. But, I can also acknowledge that they did some things right. (Towards the end) they were trying to be a community club, played out of their own venue (yes, I know they didn’t own it), and at least inspired some sort of emotion – a derby with Western would likely have be more heated than one against Melbourne City!

So overall, it’s disappointing Western are (likely) gone from the A-League as this will hurt Australian football in the short term, but their demise also signals a larger reality of the game that no one seems to realise.

Western are (nearly) done because their business wasn’t sustainable. News flash – most A-League club businesses aren’t sustainable. There are two unique factors to consider in this Western episode though. Firstly they had additional expense owing to their property business and secondly no governing body was willing to pick up the tab.

Club business models are unsustainable

Western were hemorrhaging money, but other A-League clubs are losing money too. Although Western’s demise was sped up due to the additional property project expenses, other A-League clubs face a similar future, unless something changes in their fundamental business model.

A-League costs are simply too high and with the exception of Melbourne Victory, most clubs have had to rely on ownership changes to stay afloat, in many cases, multiple times. Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Melbourne Heart, Wellington, Central Coast, Newcastle have all been forced to transition to new owners to cover accumulated debts, but even still, many of these clubs continue to experience financial insecurity.

Governing bodies won’t pick up the tab anymore

The second big factor to consider with Western is the inability for the governing body to keep the club alive. Prior to independence, the FFA owned all A-League club intellectual property (‘IP’). This meant that when clubs went insolvent (Northern Fury, Newcastle) the FFA would simply start a new company, slap the old sticker on it and fans wouldn’t even notice their club had died.

The FFA would also often step in to provide financial support to A-League clubs when they were navigating choppy financial waters until a new owner could be found – even Victory was part owned by the FFA at inception because the club failed to attract the necessary investment!

What’s different now is that administrative body (the APL) cannot play the same role. Firstly, the APL does not own the IP, so it can’t force brand continuity. This means if Western United’s business dies, likely so will the brand. Secondly, the administrative body no longer has the funding or appetite to keep clubs afloat. The APL (like the FFA before it) actually did this with Perth Glory when they were between owners, they also provided loans to other clubs who were short on cash, and they even helped coalesce a group of A-League clubs to temporarily fund Newcastle Jets.

This time though, the APL didn’t pull any of these levers to save Western United. Unlike the FFA, (or even the APL from a few years ago), the current APL doesn’t have the money or the appetite to save clubs anymore. This is a warning shot to the other A-League clubs – get your finances in order, because no one is coming to save you anymore.

There needs to be cost cuts

This is easier said than done though. Cost-cutting is necessary to make A-League clubs financially sustainable, but the black box for me is what are the current expenses? I don’t understand. Even the roughest (and most generous) numbers I can put together suggest players only account for a maximum of 1/3 of total expenses. To quote The Flight of the Concords, “what are you overheads”?

High running costs (in conjunction with ridiculous potential license fees) create a barrier for expansion that the league desperately needs to foster fandom and football development. Last season’s 26 games + byes + international breaks meant clubs could go a month and only play two games – and this is in addition to already having the longest offseason in the world!

Unsustainable business models are making it hard for clubs to survive (killed Western United) but also make it hard to expand the league (making it hard to replace Western United).

All this talk about including South and Preston is null and void as long as this is the case. I don’t think either club would be able to make things work in with the current A-League club business model. Where’s the counter evidence? So far even existing A-League clubs have failed to make it work! This is a blight on the A-League and needs to be corrected, not for South Melbourne’s benefit, but to prevent the next Western United catastrophe.

Cupsets

For over a decade the Australia Cup has done a wonderful job changing the football narrative and closing the gap (both actual and perceived) between the A-League and NPL. Recent results I think are contributing to A-League fans’ new openness to NPL inclusion, but this point is pointless unless the financial sustainability question above can be addressed. What the Australia Cup has done, is shown fans a sustainable way forward, by platforming football experiences and performances that *shock-horror* fans now deem acceptable on the national stage.

Lakeside and the Sydney United Sports Centre look good on TV, which contest the A-League standard of mammoth and expensive stadiums. Of course, those modern facilities are better, but the Ausrtalia Cup shows that they aren’t the only option for the A-League.

Cup sets, like Heidelberg’s in particular, also show us that good football doesn’t require bloated wage bills or massive overheads. I don’t care that Wanderers and Wellington played away during preseason, they should not have copped 7 goals against a team with less than a quarter of their player budget. The Australia Cup in this way also shows the possibilities of a good football product without the excessive club expenses.

These recent results fuel the conversations about promotion and relegation, but once again this is pointless until A-League club business models can become sustainable. The Australia Cup has shown a sustainable way forward. The A-League could still produce a good product even with a more sustainable business model.

Australian Championship

Finally the Australian Championship. I’ll start with the harsh truth. A 9 week tournament is not a second division and in no way implies South or Preston can step up to the A-League. It runs on a completely different business model which didn’t even require the initially sought 500k bank guarantee.

Now the good – and I’ll just highlight one thing because I’m tired now. The Australian Championship will see 8 games each weekend in the group stage. I was shocked at the impact the fixture had on me. It felt like a league and offered so much more dynamism than I’m used to following the A-League (because believe it or not, I do pay attention). 8 games vs 6 game offers so much more reach, points of interest and fixturing opportunities. It also showed a really impactful way of creating a platform for clubs, sustainably.

Conclusion

Anyway end rant. Western United out is bad. A-League clubs need to become more sustainable by cutting costs. Expansion is necessary and only possible by fixing the club business model. The Australian Championship is a good start but we have a long way to go.

Let’s not get crazy and start claiming South will play in the A-League next year… or even crazier and suggest Preston could do it after managing just one season in Victorian top flight… Jeeze….

In all honestly South would probably make it work, but the A-League’s track record suggests the competition structure will make it unnecessarily hard. There is an A-League club sustainability issue that needs to be fixed, not just to allow clubs like South to enter and be their best, but to support existing A-League clubs who are clearly struggling in cases where they don’t have billionaire or oil money ownership.

Western United’s likely failure is a loud and inevitable warning, a look behind the modern flashy facade of A-League football. Clubs need to become more sustainable or else more will fall like Western.

So many fans have argued against promotion and relegation by calling relegation a death sentence, what they don’t realise is, in this current environment, promotion would likely be a death sentence too.